Lai See | Michael DeGolyer explains the anaconda strategy

The anaconda is a large non-venomous snake that overcomes its victims first by asphyxiation, then crushing and eating them. It is for this reason that Michael DeGolyer, the professor of government and international studies at Hong Kong Baptist University, has used its name for one of his scenarios for the outcome of the "umbrella movement".

Speaking to Lai See after discussing it on Radio Television Hong Kong's Money for Nothing programme, DeGolyer said it involved the "slow strangulation of the umbrella revolution using a divide-and-conquer strategy".

The strategy involved inflicting painful but easily reversible economic damage in incremental doses as a means of pressuring Hong Kong people to turn against the Occupy Central student movement.

DeGolyer believes this is the most likely strategy to be deployed by the mainland. The first step has already been taken with the banning of mainland group tours to Hong Kong. They have been a source of inconvenience to Hongkongers, but also a considerable source of revenue for the tourism and related industries. The advantage of this approach, he says, is that although this sector only accounts for about 4 per cent of gross domestic product, it accounts for 9 per cent of employment.

At the same time, for every employee that loses his or her job as a result of this move, there will be three or four others who will worry if they will still have a job should the mainland turn the screw again and ban individual travel to Hong Kong.

The additional advantage of this strategy is that "the tap can easily be turned on again" to make up for any economic damage that may occur. The point is, says DeGolyer, is to send a message to the pocket book without inflicting long-term damage at this point.

He says the mainland has thousands of incidents of unrest every year and as a result has developed some sophistication in dealing with unrest. He suspects Beijing's advice accounted for the shift in the Hong Kong government's approach to dealing with the protesters on Sunday night when tear gas was used to the pullback by the police on Monday morning. The object of this strategy is to slowly turn the public against the protesters without directly confronting them.