Lai See | Umbrella movement heading for an unhappy ending

What next for the Occupy movement? We've seen comment that both sides need to find a face-saving way for the protests to end or at least for the streets to be opened up. The students have plenty of face already having surprised everybody with a huge popular demonstration that has had ripples around the world and demonstrates a high degree of concern with the political arrangements here.

Or they feel that a more representative government would do more to improve conditions in Hong Kong. The students have been exemplary protesters. Non-violent, polite to a fault, clearing up their rubbish and sorting it, and so on. The danger now is that these achievements will be dissipated as popular support fades as an increasing number of small businesses lose money and people are in danger of losing their jobs as a result of the demonstrations.

The danger as we discussed last week is that by extending the protest, the movement loses public support and becomes increasingly isolated thereby enabling the government to move against it without too much reaction from the public.

Indeed there is a danger that if the movement overplays its hand the government will come out of this in a stronger position should it be able to demonstrate with some plausibility that it was through its own efforts, rather than student agreement, that resulted in the streets being cleared.

To remain a significant force, the students need to stop the current protest so that they can retain public support for future demonstrations.

As for the demand for talks it's hard to see the government holding meaningful talks about constitutional reform with the students. Indeed it is possible but unlikely the government will be allowed by the mainland authorities to make significant concessions with respect to the structure of the nominating committee for the 2017 chief executive election, since this would be viewed as yielding to popular pressure.

The current unrest will have increased the mainland's distrust of Hong Kong. There is a view among some students that the established politicians have had 20 years to achieve political reform but have little to show for it, so want to do things differently. If this is a widespread feeling among the movement then we feel this is going to end unhappily for those pushing for constitutional reform.