The View | As China obtains more power, camouflage becomes less necessary
It’s time for Hong Kong to start planning for life after 2047
Hong Kong was supposed to live happily ever after 1997. It used to be called “a city living on borrowed time.” Now it is living on borrowed time again as the need to plan for the end of the Basic Law in 2047 looms large. Important recent events offer a glimpse of what is in store.
So far, despite the partially explained disappearance of five booksellers, not only has the rule of law continued to function in Hong Kong, but no US aircraft carriers have showed up in Victoria Harbour. It is business as usual. “Rendition with Chinese characteristics” has not led to significant international reaction beyond some press coverage.
Like all gambits, the arrests either initially appear as a reckless move or bold strategy by the Chinese government. Now that they have determined that Hong Kong’s government and business establishment will not speak out, take action or protest a major violation of the Basic Law it opens possibilities about how to shape Hong Kong’s economy and political system after 2047.
Whatever statute will replace the Basic Law in 2047, proposals and high certainty should be agreed and established around 2020 in order to provide continuity for the business sector, society and economy. Local banks need certainty on how they will issue or refinance mortgages before 2047. So far, after 2047, without any agreement in place, they intend to issue rolling one-year mortgages. I am not aware of any bank currently issuing mortgages whose terms extend beyond 2047.
Hong Kong ‘s establishment has thrown breadcrumbs at young people in the form of feel good conferences on how to be an entrepreneur and aimless investment funds
“Rule of law” is often quoted as Hong Kong’s fixed fortification– its last line of usefulness to China as an inflated property market has driven out everything else. It is becoming a cliché as China has developed and carved out its own position in international markets. Foreign companies seek to enter an increasingly important domestic Chinese market and are willing to operate with Chinese laws.
China’s growing demand for more sophisticated financial services makes it eventually imperative to locate a foreign bank’s headquarters in Beijing or Shanghai and not Hong Kong.