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China Economy

How credit fuelled China’s incredible boom

Video: Economist Richard Duncan believes China’s hard landing has already begun

PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 25 May, 2016, 8:00am
UPDATED : Wednesday, 25 May, 2016, 11:12pm

Economist and financial author Richard Duncan has published a stark look at China’s economy as it enters a new phase of slower growth, assessing the implications for a global economy that has become reliant on Chinese demand as a driver.

Duncan believes that China’s economic boom ended in 2015 and that a protracted slump lies ahead. He has published a series of videos explaining why, in his opinion, China’s economic development model of export-led and investment-driven growth is now in crisis. The South China Morning Post brings you the first video in that series.

“China’s economy resembles a spinning top that is running out of momentum. It is wobbling and gyrating erratically,” Duncan said.

A former Hong Kong-based banking analyst, Duncan has also worked as an analyst at the World Bank, and as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London. He has authored three books on the global economic crisis, including The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures. He is now chief economist at the Singapore-based hedge fund Blackhorse Asset Management.

Duncan was also a speaker at last week’s Asian Leadership Forum in Seoul, South Korea. The South China Morning Post was a media partner to the event. He runs the blog Macro Watch, a subscription-based website providing analysis on global economic trends.

The views expressed in this video are those of Richard Duncan alone and do not represent those of the South China Morning Post. The material in it is for research purposes only and should not be used as a basis for making trading or investment decisions. The South China Morning Post takes no responsibility for any such decisions taken on the basis of this video or any other material provided by Richard Duncan via his videos, blog or any other platform.

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