Outside In | Philippines’ future is in Duterte’s hands as he heads into China talks
The Hague’s ruling in favour of the Philippines over territorial claims in the South China Sea gives the outspoken president the leverage to change his country’s fortunes
Back in 1975, the then-revered Far Eastern Economic Review is said to have published a special edition looking forward to the year 2000. It reviewed each of Asia’s economies and predicted how they would be faring at the turn of the millennium. It said two countries would lead the region: Myanmar and the Philippines.
So much for the predictive capabilities of us economists and journalists. But so much too for the “unknown unknowns” that can turn to ashes the immense natural resource potential of these two populous and strategically placed countries.
Perhaps the less said about Myanmar the better, though with luck things are at last changing there for
Behind the outrageous and foul-mouthed poseur who would be more than a match on stage for Donald Trump, there is perhaps the canny manoeuvring of a veteran politician
the better. But the bigger puzzle is the Philippines which, without the catastrophic political upheavals that swept Myanmar back close to the stone age, has consistently punched under its weight and managed to disappoint. We can blame corruption, and cronyism, and the ill fortune to be constantly buffeted by devastating typhoons and earthquakes, but others in Asia have suffered similar challenges, and still fared better.
I raise this conundrum today because I have a vague and weird feeling that Rodrigo Duterte has the potential at last to change all that. Behind the outrageous and foul-mouthed poseur who would be more than a match on stage for Donald Trump, there is perhaps the canny manoeuvring of a veteran politician. And as he steps this week onto a plane to Beijing, for his first official visit to China, he has in his hands the potential not just to change the balance of regional power, but to bring unprecedented benefits to the Philippines’ long-suffering people.
It is easy to be appalled and dismayed by the new Philippine president. His vulgar mouth and brutal incivility might work in the raw-knuckled frontier politics of south eastern Mindanao, but work less well in international political fora or when directed at the president of the United States. Having fathered four children out of wedlock, he is infamous for his philandering ways and crude sexual boasts, and acts as outrageously as Donald Trump.
Vigilante redress against drug sellers and users might be embarrassingly air-brushed away in remote Davao, but such a “policy” elevated to a national level is just a few dangerous steps away from the attention of international courts and ignominious prosecution for crimes against humanity. He is walking a dangerous tight-rope on his anti-drugs campaign, and I pray he knows that. His massive popularity ratings in the Philippines – with strong support from around three quarters of the population – have given him temporary licence, but sooner rather than later his people will expect more from him. If he proves to be a “one-trick pony” focused exclusively on drugs and law and order, then his positive ratings will be short-lived.