Inside Out | New research points to China being well on the way to ruling the waves
At present, evidence of malevolent intent is weak – but the balance of maritime power now needs to be monitored with care
Some truths glare at you. Some sneak up from behind, no matter how obvious they ought to be. So it was that a research team from King’s College London, supported by the Financial Times, declared last month that China now “rules the waves”, becoming a world maritime superpower.
So much, so obvious. Of course China ought to be a global maritime superpower. It has a 9,000 mile coastline, is the world’s biggest marine fisherman, and as manufacturer to the world has become home to six of the world’s 10 busiest ports.
But the King’s College research goes further, to suggest that China is pursuing a global quest to dominate the world’s sea lanes, and to parlay its huge commercial maritime infrastructure into global military power.
Without doubt, if you are in Donald Trump’s anti-China war room, or among Vietnamese or Philippine fisherfolk in the South China Sea, or generally predisposed to believing that China is a nation with malevolent intent, the story must resonate powerfully.
But is China truly building its global maritime control by stealth? Or are the developments vividly described by the King’s College team more the natural outcome of China’s emergence as a major global trading economy? At this point – and at the risk of being accused of being a naive China apologist – I see more evidence of the former.
In 2000, China was home to five of the world’s top 50 ports (if you include Hong Kong). Today it has six of the top 10
But the extent of China’s global maritime reach today is striking. It is premature to talk of China as a challenger to the US as policeman of the world’s oceans, but if I were senior in the US Pacific Fleet, I would be watching developments with meticulous interest.