Gamblers will keep pouring into Macau, experts say
New leadership in Beijing likely to try to diversify Macau's revenues, but insiders don't believe it will impact the flow of gambling mainlanders
Industry insiders are betting that the central government's new leaders will step up efforts to cut Macau's reliance on gambling for income, but that mainlanders will keep pouring in. They also doubt that the weekend release of the former Portuguese enclave's most notorious gangster will roil the outlook.
"The impact [of the latest power transition] on Macau is that I am pretty certain that Beijing will be pushing the diversification," said Su Guojing, chairman of Asian Responsible Gaming Alliance, a Macau-based non-governmental organisation.
"Beijing has always been concerned about the diversification of Macau's revenue," Su added.
Increasing the share of non-gaming business such as theatrical entertainment and shopping has been discussed for many years, but gambling revenue is still by far the leading revenue source.
Grant Govertsen, lead analyst at Macau-based Union Gaming Research, said in a research note issued after the power reshuffle in Beijing that the leadership change is likely to "ultimately" have a positive impact on Macau.
From time to time, Beijing imposes visa restrictions on mainlanders travelling to Macau. But the report noted that "we don't think the new administration or its underlings have any intention of implementing any sort of visa restrictions to impede Macau's progress".
Warwick Bartlett, chief executive of Britain-based Global Betting and Gaming Consultants, said as long as Beijing allows people to come, the Macau gaming industry "has no problem" even during an economic slowdown on the mainland.