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For a fifth week, the exchange rate of the offshore yuan to the US dollar has risen, though moves are fairly small so that volatility has dropped since mid-February while volumes remain steady. There is no sense of panic here. Supported by the rising upper edge of the weekly cloud, the 200-day moving average and now the 50-day one, looking ahead the lagging line is likely to continue to get a lift from the candles of 26 weeks ago. This unusual feature of Ichimoku charting, which looks both ahead in time plotting the cloud out into the future while looking back at past prices, suggests a rally to 6.6336 and 6.6785 is highly likely. Be careful with January’s high of 6.751.

Nicole Elliott is a technical analyst

The headline should have said the US dollar is gaining strength

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