Macroscope | 19th Party Congress set to usher in changes as Politburo reworked
President and premier will retain positions but most members of core body might be replaced, giving Xi a chance to consolidate power
Despite being a one-party state, China does have a political cycle, which turns every five years. The event that marks the turning of the cycle is the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) Party Congress. The CPC will hold its 19th Party Congress in the autumn of this year, making it one of the key political events to watch.
At the 18th Party Congress four years ago, the leadership of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang was established and an ambitious plan to reform the economy was introduced; the upcoming 19th Congress will carry a similar weight for two reasons.
Firstly, even though Xi and Li will stay on for their second term, a number of senior leaders – five of seven Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) members – will probably retire. A reshuffling of the PSC leadership could bring changes to a wide spectrum of economic and social policies in the coming years. Secondly, China is at a critical juncture of its economic transition, confronting internal challenges (such as slowing growth and structural imbalances) and external pressure from rising populism and protectionism globally. How the political reshuffle will transpire and what strategies the Chinese leaders will adopt to tackle these challenges will be important for the market and the future of the economy.
Here are a few likely outcomes of the Congress.
Power consolidation for Xi: With the changing composition of the PSC, one popular view is that Xi will seize this opportunity to promote his allies to important posts in order to cement his “core leader” position within the Party. Under this scenario, a more stable and centralised power structure at the top of Chinese politics could help Xi push forward long-term strategies. The pace of economic reforms and rebalancing could then accelerate beyond this year.
