End of a long bullion run?

Danske Bank and Credit Suisse Group, the most-accurate gold forecasters, say prices will probably peak this year while their nearest rival, UniCredit, sees no end in sight to the 12-year bull market.

Gold would average US$1,720 an ounce this year and US$1,600 in 2014, said Christin Tuxen of Danske Bank in Copenhagen, who came closest to predicting moves in the past eight quarters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Tom Kendall at Credit Suisse in London expects US$1,740 and US$1,720 and Jochen Hitzfeld of UniCredit in Munich predicts US$1,700 and US$1,800. Bullion has risen more than sixfold since the bull market began in 2001.

All three forecast record average prices this year because central-bank stimulus will sustain buying as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Danske and Credit Suisse predict lower prices in 2014 as economic growth curbs demand for the metal as a protector of wealth while UniCredit says record-low interest rates will maintain gold's allure.

"Gold will definitely continue to rise but the euphoria has subsided," said Donald Selkin, the New York-based chief market strategist at National Securities, which manages about US$3 billion of assets, including gold. "The track record is great but this year it will take a breather."

Investors bought US$140.4 billion through exchange-traded products since gold's longest bull market in at least nine decades, creating a hoard bigger than the official reserves of all but two nations.