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China's demand for meat to change the face of global trade in feed grains

Imports expected to soar 3,500 per cent by 2050, putting huge pressure on global grain supply to provide livestock feed

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China produces nearly all of its own meat at the moment, but it is at the limit of what its environment can support. Photo: EPA

China's meat imports are predicted to skyrocket over 3,500 per cent to US$150 billion by 2050 as consumption of chicken, pork and beef surges on the back of the rising affluence of its growing middle class.

This would raise tough questions, ranging from the impact on the environment to where to find the feed for that much livestock, analysts said.

The massive increase in China's meat imports was forecast by the Australian government's agricultural research arm, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resources Economics and Sciences.

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"The shift from a rice to meat diet has already happened in China. Even small changes in the way China consumes can have a large impact overseas," said Patrick Vizzone, Asia head of food and agribusiness at National Australia Bank.

He said that between now and 2050, China would represent more than 40 per cent of the increase in world food demand.

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For instance, if China switched just 2 per cent of its pork consumption to imports, this would equal 10 per cent of the US market and three times Australia's pork production, Vizzone said.

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