New | China's reduced appetite for commodities won't be offset by India

The decade-long commodity demand "super-cycle" induced by China's unique, resource-intensive economic growth model is nearing an end, analysts say, and that will not change even if India changes course to follow suit.

That means global demand for commodities will grow more slowly in the years ahead as India, despite a similar population to China, will not make up for China's slowdown.

"Even if India were to emulate China's growth path, it will take a long time before the country can compensate for the slowdown in Chinese demand for commodities due to India's small base," Vanessa Lau, a senior analyst at American brokerage Sanford Bernstein, said in a research report.

China accounts for almost half the global usage of most industrial metals, such as steel, aluminium, copper, nickel and zinc, compared with 5 per cent or less by India.

And China's demand for polymers, a group of base industrial chemicals derived from fossil fuel, is five times that of India's. Chinese demand is expected to increase by an average of 6.6 per cent a year between 2014 and 2025, slower than India's 9 per cent, according to Heng Hui, a senior petrochemicals editor at commodities information provider Platts.

China has been seeking to shift from an economic model based on fixed-asset investment and the export of manufactured goods to one more reliant on domestic consumption and services.

The impact on metals demand has been most apparent in iron ore, with the mainland's steel consumption falling 5 per cent year on year in the first five months of this year, after a 4 per cent fall last year - the first decline in more than three decades, according to China Iron and Steel Association.