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Analysts upbeat on China copper demand growth

Analysts see rout in equity market leading to higher demand for the metal

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China accounts for about half of the estimated global demand for copper, this year at about 22 million tonnes. Photo: AFP
Reuters

The overriding fear is stock market losses could eventually feed into the real economy, hitting investment and demand for metals such as copper that are used in power and construction.

Copper is used as a bellwether of Chinese growth as the country accounts for about half of the metal's estimated global demand, this year at about 22 million tonnes.

Forecasts for China's copper demand growth, already lower than last year due to a slowing economy, mostly range between 1 and 5 per cent for 2015 and depend partly on estimates of buying by China's State Reserves Bureau.

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GFMS analysts at Thomson Reuters have pencilled in China's copper demand growth at 3.6 per cent this year.

"Perhaps counterintuitively, the equity market rout may actually lead to higher copper demand," said Ross Strachan, the manager of metals demand for Europe at GFMS, adding that more stimulus from the authorities could lift consumption.

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Data over coming weeks and months will be important for assessing whether the government and the central bank will need to increase fiscal and monetary stimulus to make sure the country reaches its 7 per cent economic growth target for this year.

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