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Ulrich's views on China a sought-after commodity

Nick Westra

Jing Ulrich has had her finger on the pulse of the mainland market for the past two decades and despite the recent slowdown, she says the nation still beats with unparalleled vitality.

Named by Forbes as one of the most powerful women in the world, the chairman and managing director of China equities at JP Morgan is well known for her bullish views on the country of her birth. Even with the economy in the doldrums, Mrs Ulrich is still upbeat and lives up to her reputation as the 'unofficial voice of China'.

The once-unstoppable economy across the border has come under scrutiny after export and industrial production growth ground to a halt last year once the global recession kicked into gear. But Mrs Ulrich said that Beijing had made a strong bid to rekindle growth after turning on an array of fiscal and monetary taps.

And she believes the economy could actually emerge from the crisis stronger than ever as the government tries to reduce its reliance on overseas exports by building up a sustainable domestic consumer market.

'No government in the world is better at focusing its ability to achieve a set target,' Mrs Ulrich said. 'Even though the situation right now is extremely challenging for China and the world economy, China [still] has the potential to lead Asia and emerging markets out of recession.'

But Mrs Ulrich said that the transition from an export-led economy to a more balanced one would not happen overnight. Demand levels in the domestic market are still hampered by a historically high consumer savings rate and a large base of unskilled and semi-skilled labourers.

And with the financial industry in a prolonged downturn and large swathes of manufacturing and shipping businesses already closed, she recognises that the mainland economy faces serious near-term challenges.

'You have 6 million college graduates this year and they are facing the toughest labour market in decades,' she said. 'So it is a major issue for the Chinese leadership to provide employment to these young people.'

Born in Beijing to Chinese diplomats who worked both overseas and on the mainland, Mrs Ulrich crossed the Pacific Ocean to pursue her higher education in the United States. She completed degrees in English at Harvard College in 1990 and from the Institute for International Studies at Stanford University in 1992 and after graduation, got her feet wet in the mainland market by working as a fund manager in Washington DC.

Her cross-cultural experiences helped her to connect with a global audience once she moved back to Asia to provide sell-side coverage on the mainland. Living in Hong Kong since 1996, she worked for Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia and Deutsche Bank before joining JP Morgan in 2005.

'I had deep roots in China, but at the same time, I also understood what western fund managers needed in terms of information and insights,' Mrs Ulrich said.

'So I began to play the role of a bridge, linking China and the west by introducing the Chinese markets to western audiences and also introducing western capital to China.'

And even though some of the sheen has come off the mainland economy over the past year, the buzz she is hearing about it from interested clients may actually be louder than ever.

'The audiences I have today are hundreds of times larger than when I first started my career, [and] literally everyone is watching China.

'While they may not be interested in buying Chinese stocks today or tomorrow, anyone in the financial services industry, the commodities business, or even manufacturing business has to watch China.'

What was it like covering the mainland market at the beginning of your career? How much did western investors know about the region at that time?

In the early 1990s, China was still an insulated market. Trading volumes were lower, the economy was much smaller than it is today, and China wasn't even a big exporting country.

Information flow was quite poor at that time, and western investors considered China to be a bit of a mystery or even impenetrable. People just did not understand what the Middle Kingdom was about.

How does that situation compare with the mainland today and what stands out to you?

The difference in China is like night and day. Today it is the third-largest economy in the world, the second-largest exporter, and the country with the highest savings rate among any major country. It is also the largest creditor nation in the world. This is the China that we have grown accustomed to in the past couple of years.

So its transformation over the last 15 years has been unprecedented in recent human history. Not only has the Chinese government lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, but China has also been able to establish itself as a global superpower in the short 20 years since reform began. The changes have been breathtaking.

What are some of the visual signs of this transformation that you notice while travelling throughout the mainland?

If you travel to the major cities of Beijing or Shanghai, some of the new neighbourhoods are literally unrecognisable. My hometown is Beijing and these days when I visit there are so many new buildings, so many new streets, and fantastic architecture that I just don't recognise it any more.

But it's not just the hardware that's changed. The most important difference is the intangible change in the software. The Chinese people today are so much more confident about themselves and about their future. In general, Chinese people today have high aspirations and the younger generation in particular thinks that it is incumbent upon them to restore China's past glory.

You have lived and worked in Hong Kong for more than a decade. Do you like it here and can the city maintain its position as an international finance centre?

This city has a lot going for it. It's extremely efficient, it's very business friendly, and the life and work environment is generally very good. We are right on the doorstep of China, and there is a lot of information flow from that. So Hong Kong is really the ideal place to cover China.

The issue with Hong Kong is how it can reinvent itself again since the Chinese economy has gone to the next stage of development. And as the world economy is undergoing such an intense transformation and the financial section is going through such a difficult time, what will the new Hong Kong be? I don't have an answer for that, but I have a lot of confidence in Hong Kong and its people.

Do you have any favourite hobbies or outside interests to balance the pressures of a busy working life?

I think the best way to stay energised is to stay engaged constantly. So I do a lot of physical exercise, going to the gym and running everyday. And I try to get some fresh air when I can and go hiking. My husband and I also enjoy travelling to new places and learning about new cultures.

But I travel a lot for work as well, spending time around the world meeting clients. So when I'm in London or New York, I like to visit the museums there because they are among the best in the world.

Do you feel like the link between western investors and the China market has become stronger over the past five years? Is there more understanding between the two sides?

The understanding of China from the outside has certainly been improving very dramatically over the last five years. As China has become progressively more important to the world economy and the world financial markets, everyone is devoting a larger and larger share of their time towards China. Information has become much more widely available compared to five years ago.

But there is always still a lot of misunderstanding and misinformation as well. So it is really important to get to the bottom of each story and the only way to do that is to talk with people who have hands-on experience.

You created a publication series called 'Hands-on China' for investors to learn more about the mainland economy. How did it develop and what is it all about?

The logic of setting up a programme like this is that there is such an insatiable appetite for the best comprehensive China information. No one person can know everything there is to know about China, so I thought the best way to approach it was to amalgamate the best intellectual talent from 'China hands' across the world from all sources - academia, corporations, corporate CEOs, and consultants - and basically have them contribute to a programme that I call JP Morgan's Hands-on China series.

This is part of my job, linking east and west, and linking the best minds together. They may be very far away from each other physically, but they can communicate and share ideas no matter where they are.

Some senior politicians in the US and Europe have suggested that China may actually be able to jumpstart the stalled global economy if it introduces more stimulus measures. Do you think this is feasible?

Although China's overall stature in the world has improved, it is still a developing nation and many of the issues that the western economies are experiencing have been deeply rooted in the financial structures of their economies.

But what China can do is to keep its economy growing strongly by introducing strong fiscal measures, easing monetary policy, and employing more people in public works programmes. It can try to provide a strong pillar for the world economy, but it is far-fetched to expect that China can rescue world capitalism or the world economy from recession.

After being voted best China watcher in numerous investor polls, you were named to Forbes '100 most powerful women list' late last year. What did that honour mean to you?

I was very flattered and I have to thank the great market I cover and JP Morgan, the great firm I work for. I try to present a balanced, objective perspective on economic developments in China and help to interpret all of the complex and important issues to a worldwide audience.

It's all about enhancing understandings across cultures because at the end of the day, it's a people business. It's not just about spreadsheets, numbers, and stock prices, it's about people. So that is why I thoroughly enjoy what I do.

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