The View | Here’s what lies ahead for Hong Kong after the 19th Party Congress
‘We will need to follow the example of the Russian oligarchs... China will make Hong Kong rich – if we stay out of politics’
My father was a China watcher. In 1970, that consisted of recognising which faces overlooked the National Day parade from the balcony on the Gate of Heavenly Peace. It was the only way to divine Chinese political and economic policy.
Today we have a savvy population, modern communications, a lot more news and a lot more noise - but it is easier to find out which faces are on the snakes and ladders of Communist Party politics.
It is a special time for China watchers who still have to guess when the most important meeting of the year happens – usually when President Xi Jinping drops off the news. A couple of weeks ago, the leaders dipped their toes in the sea at Beidaihe to play musical chairs with the next leadership. The 19th Party Congress is almost upon us, where the new leaders for the next five years will be paraded. It is a little like a papal election but where the smoke coming up the chimney is always white – there is never any public discord.
It is hard to recall how much the political landscape has changed since the 18th Congress. President Xi has emerged as the core leader, adept at using the Party machinery to face down his opponents. This congress is different for, although we are in the middle of a 10-year leadership cycle, many of the top leadership Council are going to pass the retirement age – though the hot money is betting that this will be honoured selectively.
The latest changeover will elevate a younger crop of central leaders. Only last month, Chongqing boss and Politburo member, Sun Zhengcai, was removed on a discipline charge and replaced with a trusted protégé, Chen Miner. Premier Li Keqiang’s star burned bright for a while but the speculation is that even he might be moved “upstairs”. The new generation has been forged in an age of relative peace, stability, liberalisation and economic development; in a word, success. This might breed complacency, arrogance, invincibility - and loyalty to Xi.
So Xi’s priorities are likely to give us a guide to China’s future policies. His acute political antennae led to the aggressive anti-graft campaign targeting tigers and flies. The Communist Party was being undermined by the greed of those in charge. Conveniently, the campaign also enabled tigers who were natural political opponents of Xi, to be purged.
