China's statistics chief says numbers back growth

Beijing's statistics chief says people will be "more confident" about the nation's fourth-quarter economic growth with the release of October data today.

Ma Jiantang, speaking before the 18th party congress, did not elaborate, but Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said the fourth-quarter performance would be "relatively good".

The party yesterday began a week-long meeting to choose its fifth generation of leaders as signs appear that the world's second-biggest economy is recovering from a seven-quarter slowdown.

Services industries rebounded from the weakest expansion in at least 19 months, an official purchasing managers' survey showed last week, and two separate reports showed a rise in manufacturing.

"The new leadership will see to it that the economy will not deteriorate further," Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia in Hong Kong, wrote this week.

"We expect slightly better growth from the data, amid infrastructure spending from the fiscal boost, and a more resilient consumption sector, but maintain that a recovery will be mild."

National economic growth this year may be the weakest since 1999 after the global economic crisis slashed exports and government policies to curb inflation and property speculation dampened domestic demand.

Expansion may ease to 7.7 per cent from 9.3 per cent last year, according to the median estimate of 45 analysts last month.

The economy grew 7.4 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace in three years, statistics bureau data released last month showed. Fourth-quarter growth may rebound to 7.7 per cent, according to the median estimate of 30 economists.