Analysts cautious on prospects for China's exports
Total tRecovery in US and European economies expected to underpin demand for mainland goods amid downward pressures from domestic reforms
The mainland's exports prospect is likely to get a boost through a recovery in demand from developed nations this year, but analysts caution the country's expanding trade surplus which touched a four-year peak in 2013 may stoke appreciation fears on the yuan.
Export growth decelerated to 4.3 per cent year on year last month from the 12.7 per cent growth posted in November, below market expectations for a rise of about 5 per cent, data issued by the mainland customs bureau showed.
Steady domestic demand supported imports as they rose 8.3 per cent from a year earlier, compared with 5.3 per cent in the previous month.
The trade surplus expanded last year to US$260 billion, about 12.8 per cent higher than the US$230 billion registered in 2012. It was the highest growth in the surplus since the global financial crisis in 2009 hammered the global economy.
While the pace of export growth was disappointing last month, the prospect of recovery in the United States and European economies is set to underpin external demand this year, analysts say. That would offset the downside pressures on the economy expected from Beijing's rebalancing efforts and its curbs on industrial overcapacity and local government debt risks.
We expect modest improvements in external demand going forward
"We remain cautiously optimistic for China's external outlook," said HSBC economists Ma Xiaoping and Qu Hongbin in a research report.