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  • Aug 29, 2014
  • Updated: 5:51pm
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Hong Kong urged to raise its game as Asia's financial hub

Financial forum warns of multiple challenges, with HKEx chief saying that by 2020, there will be 'one country, one system' in economic terms

PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 15 January, 2014, 12:00am
UPDATED : Wednesday, 15 January, 2014, 2:09am

Finance industry leaders have delivered an icy assessment of Hong Kong's claim to be Asia's commercial centre.

They warn the city faces rising competition from the mainland as Beijing continues its reforms and further loosens its grip on currency and interest rates.

"Economically, mainland China and Hong Kong will be one country, one system by 2020," Charles Li Xiaojia, chief executive of Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HKEx), said at the Seventh Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong yesterday.

"By then, the Chinese economy will be entirely open and its currency should be fully convertible, on top of the reforms of the financial system."

On a brighter note, the Heritage Foundation, a US-based think tank, announced in its annual report that Hong Kong was the world's freest economy yet again, capping a two-decade reign at No1.

But Singapore, in second place, narrowed the gap.

Li said that in the face of globalisation, the gap between the mainland and Hong Kong was narrowing. That was levelling the playing field economically, yet Hong Kong was not diversifying quickly enough the range of products it offers investors.

His downbeat assessment of prospects for the city's finance industry comes as it faces numerous challenges from rival cities.

Singapore has been actively luring fund management and offshore yuan business, while Shanghai has established its much-hyped free trade zone, part of a state-planned agenda for that city to be a fully fledged global financial centre by 2020.

Other participants seemed to agree with Li. Lawrence Lau Juen-yee, chairman of CIC International (Hong Kong) - the first overseas business unit of China's largest sovereign wealth fund, CIC - said investment capital should be able to move in and out of the mainland freely by 2020.

He urged Hong Kong to make the most of its competitive advantage, as Beijing was pressing for full convertibility of the yuan and liberalisation of its capital account - meaning its use for investment and financial transactions rather than those related to trade.

The HKEx has broadened its outlook, buying the London Metal Exchange last year to develop commodities trading and diversify from stock and financial futures trading. Li, who led that acquisition, said Hong Kong must take steps to avoid being caught out by a multibillion-yuan outflow into the city's market.

He said the mainland had "too much capital" and warned: "When the capital is coming out, I challenge you, Hong Kong is not ready for that."

Shanghai's free-trade zone is seen as a threat to Hong Kong's status as the gateway to China, as mainlanders will be allowed to use it as a base for investment overseas. It will also make it easier for foreigners to bring in capital.

 

 

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XYZ
Even if the renminbi is fully convertible by 2020 (which is highly doubtful because it will irretrievably weaken the CCP's iron grip over a thoroughly corrupt, Party-serving economy), until the sanctity of contract (rule of law) is established in the PRC, meaning a truly independent judiciary that is not subordinate to the Party, then HK will remain the international commercial nexus of China. Until then, can anyone seriously imagine signing a contract that says the jurisdiction of any dispute shall be a so-called court in the PRC? Only with other people's money. Let's see how the Shanghai Free Trade Zone works out first.
singleline
Once as a tourist I paid a visit to a certain royal tomb of a very famous late-Ming-dynasty Emperor in Beijing many years ago.
I was told that other tombs remained unexcavated formally.
I asked why.
The tourist guide said that, well, some work should be left to be done by our future generations.
Perhaps it explains why the most famous royal tomb (in Xian) of the First Emperor of China, Qin Shi Huangdi, remains unexcavated formally.
It's claimed by some people that the priceless treasures inside the tomb have mostly been stolen.
I very much like to see the tomb being opened before my eyes.
Also I very much like to witness 'Pax Chinnica' in my lifetime.
But, like it or not, we can’t avoid playing the wait-and-move-slowly game some of the time.
(Perhaps witnessing ‘Pax Hongkongica’ is enough for this Hongkong generation.)
singleline
2020?
Just 6 years later.
Can't be so fast.
We don't even need 2020 hindsight to know that China's coming painful rebalancing act, from an investment-led and export-led economy to a consumption-led one, takes a long time to complete.
GDP growth rates have to drop in the coming years.
Export surplus will continue to shrink.
Financial repression has to be further suppressed through interest rate liberalization.
And without a well-developed debt market in whose products pension funds, insurance companies and foreign countries can invest (guided by a free-market genuine and higher yield curve), a well-functioning derivative market, bankruptcy laws, credit rating agencies, etc, (not to mention the necessary political reforms), it's too early yet to talk about Renminbi's becoming one of the world's investment and reserve currencies.
While Renminbi should further appreciate to lower the Chinese residents' import consumption tax, thereby encouraging more domestic consumption, too-fast full-opening of China's capital account may lead to serious and unintended consequences and is really a matter of great concern to us all.
It's too early to say that the Chinese economy will be entirely open, and that mainland China and Hong Kong will be one country, one system, by 2020.
Haste makes waste.
Why hurry?
The beggar-monk couldn't have become the first Emperor of the Ming Dynasty if he had been in a hurry, remember?
aplucky1
who cares what a bunch of vile greedy slimy lack of any integrity bankers think
they sit around all day thinking of how they can rob governments all day
so sad if we listen to these animals
pragmatist
Yes, please wake up. The writing is on the wall. We need reforms, we need more entrepreneurship.
 
 
 
 
 

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