Fake invoicing last year may hit China's 7.5pc full-year trade growth target

Inflated mainland export figures last year due to fake invoicing have led to slower growth rates in trade data this year, economists said, and that might cause Beijing to miss its full-year external trade growth target of 7.5 per cent.

The combined year-on-year growth rate for mainland exports and imports in the first eight months of this year was only 2.3 per cent, well behind the central government's whole-year target.

Mainland exports to Hong Kong have slumped this year, especially in the first half.

"The comparable figures last year were higher. In the first half of last year, [mainland to Hong Kong] export growth was very high and those figures might be inflated," Trade Development Council principal economist Daniel Poon said yesterday at the release of its third quarter export index.

The index fell 5.9 points from the second quarter to 41.7, showing that Hong Kong exporters were more pessimistic about their short-term prospects.

Mainland exports to Hong Kong fell 18 per cent year on year in the first seven months of this year, according to mainland customs figures, at a time when mainland exports to many other trade partners were growing. But figures from Hong Kong's Census and Statistics Department show that imports from the mainland rose 5.6 per cent in the first seven months of the year.