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The revisions lifted the service sector's contribution to economic output to 46.9pc. Photo: AFP

China revises GDP figures, saying economy was 3.4pc bigger last year

2013 GDP increased by 3.4pc but new figure not to affect this year's growth, say authorities

The mainland revised up the size of its economy for last year but sees that having little effect on economic growth this year, amid expectations that Beijing may roll out more stimulus to support the slowing economy.

Gross domestic product was up 3.4 per cent to an estimated 58.8 trillion yuan (HK$74.3 trillion) last year, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday, following a new economic census.

That marks a rise of 1.9 trillion yuan in the size of the mainland economy that year, slightly below the entire gross domestic product of Malaysia during the same period.

The upward revision of GDP, which reflected greater contribution from the services sector that may create more jobs as factories struggle, will do little to ease pressures on the government to support the slowing economy, analysts say.

"The economy still faces downward pressure and the government is likely to lower its growth target for 2015," said Tang Jianwei, an economist at Bank of Communications who expected the government to maintain policy stimulus next year.

Services accounted for 46.9 per cent of 2013 GDP, up from an initial estimate of 46.1 per cent, while the secondary sector - which includes manufacturing and construction - accounted for 43.7 per cent, down from 43.9 per cent.

The third economic census, which was published this week, showed the services sector had expanded at a faster clip than the manufacturing sector between 2009 and 2013.

The statistics bureau said it was still revising the historical GDP data series, which could show revised economic growth for 2013 and previous years.

"The revision of 2013 GDP could affect the size of 2014 GDP but will basically not affect GDP growth for 2014," the bureau said in a statement.

Some analysts had previously expected the GDP revision to make it easier for the government to meet its growth target of around 7.5 per cent this year.

The past two censuses led to a 16.8 per cent revision to 2004 GDP size and a 4.4 per cent increase in 2008.

Economic growth weakened to 7.3 per cent in the third quarter, and November's soft factory and investment figures suggest full-year growth will miss Beijing's 7.5 per cent target and mark the weakest expansion in 24 years.

Economists who advise the government have recommended that China lower its growth target to around 7 per cent in 2015.

The bureau did not say whether it had added research and development (R&D) spending into GDP or revised the way it calculates the value of "housing services".

"If they had chosen the new methodology, the final revised numbers would have been significantly higher," said Angela Beibei Bao, China analyst at Rhodium Group in New York.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Beijing revises up size of economy
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