Consensus opinion in January was that the US dollar just had to strengthen. Moves over the past three weeks will have forced some to review and start trimming positions. The Swiss franc is no exception, having broken a long-term chart level at 0.935 to the dollar, which suggests further strength this summer. It is worth mentioning that futures volume is about half the level before the Swiss National Bank lifted the cap against the euro, suggesting more cautious trading. With the franc sitting on retracement support at 0.912 to the dollar, allow for hesitation for a week or two and then a drop to the first measured target at 0.88 against the dollar, which should drag the 50-day moving average down to the 200-day one - another signal to sell the dollar-franc.