Advertisement
Advertisement
China Stock Turmoil 2015
Get more with myNEWS
A personalised news feed of stories that matter to you
Learn more
A shadow of a man is reflected on a glass with the People's Bank of China in the background as the country tries to spur its faltering economy. Photo: AP

New | Wobbly global growth isn’t all down to China’s stuttering economy

‘May you live in interesting times,’ goes the traditional Chinese curse, according to folklore. Global trade is so afflicted and it’s fashionable in some quarters – and persuasive to some audiences – to point the finger of blame at China’s flagging economy.

The performance of world’s second-biggest economy is certainly material. But, just as the record shows the now-famous curse may in fact have originated elsewhere, shouldn’t we consider the influence of other players in the global economy – including the country at number one?

First, the bad news. The China Caixin flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell again last week, hitting its lowest level since March 2009. PMI takes in a range of factors including employment, prices, production, inventories, new orders and supplier deliveries. A reading above 50 reflects an expanding manufacturing economy; China’s latest reading of 47, down from 47.8, says local demand is still slowing.

“Sceptics might still argue that it is China’s weakness that’s infecting everyone else, boomeranging back to the mainland in the form of weaker exports. But that can’t be the entire explanation,” said Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC.

Broadening the view to take in the rest of the globe, a key data point is the correlation between China’s export shipments, which continue to soften, and weak imports in developed markets.

In the US, the dollar is riding high and domestic retail spending has recently been robust. But this has not translated to higher imports, as consumers focus on small-ticket items and buy online instead of through traditional retailers. The country’s non-petroleum import growth has stalled just above zero.

European imports are similarly unimpressive, even when measured by volume to strip out the effect of the falling euro. As for Japan, its import volumes are contracting.

“Let’s face it: for all their recent swagger, developed markets are hardly firing on all cylinders. So, don’t just blame China. Everyone’s got a role to play in keeping the world economy right side up,” Neumann said.

Even so, Beijing will be concerned by the latest figures, having committed to sustaining 7 per cent economic growth. A policy adjustment is likely and analysts suggest diversification away from the preferred, large-scale infrastructure projects championed through initiatives like One Belt, One Road.

“The current economic stabilisation measures, which concentrate on infrastructure investment and large state-owned enterprises, [have] failed to prevent the slowdown and drive up small firms,” said analysts at North Square Blue Oak.

But even if policy shifts to take in smaller and more diverse businesses, state-owned enterprises will remain in the vanguard. SOEs are present in almost every segment of the economy and have long being seen as the factor blocking the optimal functioning of market mechanisms.

SOE reform remains a top agenda item, and analysts say the concept of mixed ownership, introduced in the latest reform plan from the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the State Council, has promise. The influence of non-state investors could improve resource allocation and accountability and generate impetus to declare dividends rather than cling to profits.

 

“If the reform programme is carried out effectively, together with other reforms, market forces will gain substantially more ground and most SOEs in competitive sectors should improve their productivity and efficiency,” said Xing Dong Chen, a BNP Paribas analyst.

As it stands, the SOE reform vision remains a long way from western-style privatisation. Not only does it aim to make SOEs bigger and stronger, it strengthens the role of the Chinese Communist Party committee in SOE management.

“The most complicated issues are how to deal with the CCP’s role in the management of SOEs, how to distinguish between corruption and mistakes and how to generate a zeal for reform that mobilises both public officials and SOE management,” Chen said.

It remains to be seen how transformative the latest plan can be as it aims to drive corporate governance improvements in a non-compliance culture while tightening political and ideological oversight of business.

“The market reaction seemed to be one of disappointment rather than excitement,” Chen said.

With this heady mix of depressed global trade and the continuing struggle between free market and command-and-control economics, interesting times look set to continue.

 

Post