Chart of the day: Offshore yuan steady as she goes
As we mentioned a few weeks ago, the outlook for the yuan is mixed at best. We shall continue to allow for more random moves roughly between 6.44 and 6.53 per US dollar. Note that both volume and observed volatility continued to drop last month, as one would expect when a market becomes rangebound. Keep in mind that since the start of 2014, the very long-term trend has been to weakness, nothing too dramatic, but moving from 6.01 to 6.75 – 12 per cent of face value. This status quo will not last forever and a weekly close above 6.55 would set off the next leg in the series of bullish moves for the dollar.
Nicole Elliott is a technical analyst