On Monday, the Shanghai A-Share Index slipped under the neckline of an intermediate head-and-shoulders top, sliding through a very thin Ichimoku cloud. Not surprisingly, volatility is at its highest in two months. The move adds weight to a view that over the medium term a trading band between 2,750 and 3,200 points is being established. However, we shall also allow for cautious probing down to the psychological 2,500 level, maybe even 2,200, acting as a magnet because this index is still in a long-term bear market. Downside pressure increases if we hold below the neckline, then below the lower edge of the cloud. This should push the index down to the lows of January and February at 2,750 points.
