The soya bean No 1 futures contract, which has been actively traded in Dalian for at least a decade, saw mixed fortunes so far this year. Dipping to a low of 3,199 yuan per tonne in the first quarter – as low as it got in 2008-09 – it is currently rallying for a third consecutive month. While in itself not conclusive, it offers a glimmer of hope for all emerging-market producers. Its US counterpart is doing even better, rallying last week beyond its 2015 high, suggesting its Chinese cousin might eventually do so, too. Bullish momentum is stronger than it has been in two years, but be careful because volatility is more than double its long-term mean. The initial target is 4,100, and then eventually 4,400.
Nicole Elliott is a technical analyst