Since the beginning of this year, all currencies have strengthened against the US dollar despite the much-heralded interest rate rise by the Federal Reserve, giving the lie to the theory that rate differentials determine foreign-exchange rates. Leading the major currencies and outperforming most emerging-market ones is the yen, which might keep US President Donald Trump off Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s back for a while longer. Since December, the yen has been consolidating in a right-angled triangle under trend-line and Fibonacci retracement resistance. On Friday, it closed fractionally under its lower edge, suggesting the long-term trend to a weaker dollar against the yen, which started in the second quarter of 2015, has resumed. The MACD and momentum are now bearish.
