Wholesale crude prices, as we all know, plummeted from July last year, in line with a strengthening US dollar - and a bit more. Seven consecutive monthly falls later seem to have formed an interim base in the US$43 area on Nymex futures with a double-bottom chart pattern. The pattern started in January, but last week, for the first time, prices managed to hold above US$54 - the top of the pattern. Similarities with the chart of the pound's exchange rate with the dollar underline the impact of currency on commodity prices. While oil remains above the 10-week moving average, investors should expect a rally to US$64 and maybe as high as the Fibonacci retracement at US$67.
