Chart Book | Chart of the day: Dollar set for retreat

April and so far May have been cruel months for US dollar bulls - of which there are still far too many - as a reversal in the dollar index forces a re-evaluation in consensus thinking. March's record futures volume was almost matched last month, underlining the power of the massive tweezers top on the monthly chart. In our view, a continued retreat is likely, albeit more slowly, with a sustained break below 92.5 putting the index back inside the very broad range that has held since 2004. A 50 per cent correction of the rally of the past 12 months takes us down to 89.65 and a decline to 86 to 87 cannot be ruled out.