Downside pressure this week saw bearish momentum increase on all US indices, although none were oversold. More importantly, it set off a death cross (50-day moving average below the 200-day one) on the Dow Industrials, which joins Dow Transports which crossed in March. Not the end of the world because they might flip back to bullish like Dow Utilities has, but certainly a warning light for all serious long-term fund managers. Price action this year has held above 17,600 points much of the time and the longer we now hold below this level, the more it looks like a gentle rounded top has formed. This would then suggest an initial drop to February's low at 17,000.