Despite October's rally being much smarter than expected it is still very much a corrective move within a downward sloping trend channel that has dominated since early 2013. It takes the shape of and A, B, C-type bounce where C is the same height as A, and has retraced half of this year's losses but has not put gold into overbought territory. The candles of the last fortnight, where the second fits inside the first, are known as a pregnant pause which is often the first sign of a change in trend. Moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud are still pointing south, hinting that the next phase will be a drop continuing the bear trend that started in 2011.