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Chart of the day: Migrant flow factor

PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 11 November, 2015, 11:31pm
UPDATED : Wednesday, 11 November, 2015, 11:34pm

Short-term migrant labour flows and wages are good indicators of economic and labour market conditions in China. The IMF has said growth in migrant flows is strongly correlated with GDP growth, with a two percentage point growth in GDP reflected in a one point growth in migrant flows. "The sharp drop in [the first quarter] and weak rebound in [the second] suggest migrant workers are finding fewer opportunities in the cities and/or dismayed at the higher living costs," said Standard Life Investments economist Alex Wolf. "As China attempts to rebalance, it will be the fate of this young, often-educated urban underclass that could decide the outcome of China's reform plan."