Chart Book

Chart of the day: Li Keqiang Index turns higher

PUBLISHED : Saturday, 19 July, 2014, 1:56am
UPDATED : Saturday, 19 July, 2014, 1:56am

The economic pulse on the mainland is clearly quickening, judging by the three metrics Premier Li Keqiang uses as his key reference points for the health and intensity of the economy – industrial production, electricity consumption and railway freight traffic. Economists at Nomura highlight the strong correlation that electricity consumption and rail freight have with industrial production at 0.64 and 0.66, respectively. The implication from industrial production’s higher-thanconsensus bounce last month is that the bottom of the cycle has definitively passed and that growth momentum is building. For Nomura, that should translate into GDP growth of 7.5 per cent in the current quarter and 7.6 per cent next.