Japan's Nikkei-225 Index has been in a secular downtrend since 1990. There have been big rallies since - its doubling from 8,200 points triggered by the start of Abenomics in 2012 is the latest example. It is also the latest example of a false dawn. The Nikkei has again run into the twin obstacles of long-term channel resistance and a robust Fibonacci retracement barrier at around 15,800 points. A sell-off last week and a close below the 200-day moving average were a clear sign of negative sentiment - and that was before grim gross domestic product data for the second quarter. A drop to trend-line support at around 14,600 points is the likely next stop before a slide later this year.
