
At best the new government plan to cool housing prices has only a small chance of success. But for those of us at the battered end of the small and medium enterprise spectrum, it is not only a failure but one that is producing damaging effects.
This is because the iron rule of unintended consequences has already kicked in.
While the government focused on residential property, it missed the fact that, if it tampered with this sector, speculators would likely shift their interest to commercial properties where there is no penalty for making a quick buck.
As it happens my company is in the middle of buying a factory for the mundane purpose of expansion. Within a day of the new policy being announced we lost out on buying the factory (a speculator jumped in with a better offer) and have entered what can only be called delicate negotiations with the owner of another set of premises who flatly refuses to negotiate and, says the agent, should not be contacted in case he decides to up the price.
So I am not offering thanks to the government geniuses who thought up this wheeze. Did it occur to them that companies wishing to expand, create employment and stimulate economic growth might become mired in the brown stuff?
Should we join the speculators? Probably not - it's a sure way of hollowing out our economy, turning it into some kind of Cayman Islands paradise for punters, while creating new recruits for a jobless underclass. I am pretty sure that this is not what the government has in mind, but unintended consequences are the norm not the exception when it comes to government policy. The economist Adam Smith famously described this process as being the "invisible hand" at work. He was talking not about government action but about individuals in pursuit of personal gain being "led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention".