Planned joint maritime security exercise shows Asean can lead

Asean defence chiefs agreed earlier this month to undertake a joint maritime security exercise in the strategic Malacca Strait next year. While that may not seem exactly earth-shaking, it would be a sharp break with the past practice of eschewing formal Asean-wide security exercises. Indeed, it is a bold initiative that sends strong signals to extra-regional powers that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations can still be a player in the security arena.

The timing is auspicious. Asean is currently struggling to present a united front vis-à-vis China regarding the details of a code of conduct in the South China Sea. In the bigger picture, members are trying to avoid being split by the US-China contest for their "hearts and minds" and to maintain Asean centrality in security architecture for the region.

Asean, formed in 1967 as a pro-West capitalist bulwark against the spread of communism, emphasising enhanced economic co-operation, is trying to transform itself into a "political-security community" by 2015. Many in the West think this is a bridge too far. Indeed, Asean has long been dismissed as nothing more than a talk shop. Some predict that US-China rivalry will dominate regional political affairs, increase instability and erode the grouping's political and security centrality.

Cracks are already beginning to appear. Supposed neutrals Indonesia and Malaysia are now leaning towards the US. Singapore, as a US strategic partner, and the Philippines, as a US ally, are already there. Thailand is a holdover US military ally from another era. But, in a pinch, it may well bend towards its powerful Asian neighbour. Vietnam has been very public in its attempts to draw in the US as a balancer to China. And the US has even made political inroads in Myanmar - before now a staunch China supporter.

But this Western "invasion" has not completely erased the ancient influence of Chinese culture and its diaspora - and the respect for, and fear of, China. Many Southeast Asian countries take the long-term view: China will always be there. Their valid concern is that US influence may eventually recede like the outgoing tide, to be replaced by a Chinese storm surge.

Asean was already divided on the South China Sea issues. Non-claimants Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand seem to have a preference for engaging China through a "low-key approach". Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam have rival claims vis-à-vis China - and each other. The latter is significant because China has played on those differences. The Philippines and Vietnam oppose China's claims while, historically, Brunei and Malaysia have been more low key. Brunei may now be going its own way and Malaysia's position is becoming increasingly ambiguous. Indonesia and Singapore have attempted to play mediating roles between China and the Philippines and Vietnam - while maintaining Asean unity.