China's ties with Latin America counter US rebalance policy

Xi Jinping's intense nine-day tour of Latin America last month yielded significant gains for Beijing's strategy in the region and in the broader strategic arena vis-à-vis the United States. Moving beyond purely economic interactions, Beijing is content that Xi's trip has reinforced political relationships that will ultimately temper American influence in the region and help counter the US rebalance policy.

Ever since Washington announced its intention to "rebalance" to Asia, China perceives that those nations embroiled in territorial disputes with it in the East and South China seas have been encouraged to ramp up their aggression.

Beijing believes that the rebalance is designed to blunt China's growing power in East Asia. In the face of growing pressure, some strategists in Beijing have called for evasive action and a closer exploration of its figurative "western frontier": the idea that any nation outside of the US, Europe and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is a potential ally.

And so in Latin America, Beijing has turned Washington's own rebalancing strategy on its head. It is giving the US a taste of its own medicine in what the US has long considered its backyard.

In moving to counter Washington's strategy in Asia, China has two options. The first is to meet the challenge head-on and to oppose the US in any disputes over territory or trade. In every aspect of global governance and the global order, China would differ.

The second is to cooperate. In sharing responsibility for global and regional governance, China would demonstrate to the US that harming China's interests would deeply harm its own.

The first option would most likely lead to a cold war, perhaps even outright conflict.