Advertisement
18th Party Congress
OpinionBlogs
Victoria Ruan

The Power ShiftDon't bank on speedy economic reforms after the 18th Party Congress

3-MIN READ3-MIN
A worker prepares to hoist metal parts at the assembly line at a bus manufacturer in Dandong city in northeast China's Liaoning province on Oct. 20, 2012. Photo: AP

A Chinese proverb says: Haste does not bring success (欲速则不达) .

This also applies to the Chinese approach to reform: Hold your breath, and don’t make the mistake of expecting overnight change (even though China-watchers keep warning that there's no time to waste).

In the near term, Beijing is expected to continue to focus on growth, though it is unlikely to repeat the massive stimulus package that it produced after the initial global financial crisis in 2009.

Advertisement

In the long run, China has a lot on its plate: rebalancing the growth model to favour consumption over exports; correcting income inequality; cutting state-owned enterprises’ monopolies; encouraging private investors to enter lucrative sectors like banking; introducing a market-based interest rate system that better reflects the underlying risks; improving urban and rural social security networks – the list is almost endless.

Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang probably have the ambition to launch bold reforms to sustain growth over the next decade, but for the short term they’re likely to be busy consolidating power and maintaining political stability.

Advertisement

Tackling the complicated and delicate web of vested interests between state business sectors and government agencies, involves careful footwork. Haste is not an option – or the reform plans may be stillborn.

Advertisement
Select Voice
Select Speed
1.00x