The Power Shift
by

Here are 9 guesses at the next Politburo Standing Committee line-up

PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 07 November, 2012, 1:12pm
UPDATED : Wednesday, 07 November, 2012, 2:27pm

One of the few major news items expected to come out of the 18th Party Congress, which begins tomorrow in Beijing, are names of the new members on the Communist Party's Politburo Standing Committee, which effectively runs the country.

The exact makeup of the committee has long been under speculation, a favourite of China watchers and media alike, and we've gathered 9 of the more prominent forecasts below.

While seats belonging to Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang are more or less assured, as is a smaller committee size of 7 members, there remains the question of two swing seats that could go to known conservatives, Liu Yunshan and Zhang Gaoli (underlined below), or two men considered bold reformers, Wang Yang and Li Yuanchao.

SCMP sources have indicated that Wang and Li won't make the cut, but as the chart below shows, others beg to differ.

Plus (+) symbols indicate a certainty vote and tilde (~) symbols a maybe.

As a reference point, these are SCMP's picks, arranged in the same order below: Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Zhang Dejiang, Liu Yunshan, Yu Zhengsheng, Zhang Gaoli, Wang Qishan (minus Wang Yang and Li Yuanchao).

  Xi  Li Zhang Liu Yu Zhang  Wang Liu Wang Li
SCMP + + + + + + +      
FT + + +   +   +   + +
Reuters + + ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
New York Times + + + + ~ + +     ~
Sing Tao Daily + + + + + + +      
Mingjing + + + + + + +      
Duowei + + +   +   +   + +
Willy Lam + + +   +   +   + +
Jon Huntsman + + +   +   +   + +