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Ian Young


	In the immediate aftermath of last month’s Vancouver election, the Hongcouver blog took a look at the varying levels of support for mayoral candidate Meena Wong across the city, as a means of considering whether more-Chinese neighbourhoods were more inclined to support an ethnically Chinese candidate.   

	 

	That admittedly crude examination found that they were not, and I concluded that the supposed tendency of the “Chinese vote” to favour Chinese candidates was a myth.

	 

	I’m still happy with that conclusion, but a couple of readers correctly pointed out a rather gaping hole in the analysis: the various neighbourhoods under consideration were widely dissimilar, and not just in their proportion of Chinese residents, with varying left-right political tendencies that would have shown up irrespective of race. This was kind of the point of my argument – that other factors will generally outweigh the colour of a candidate’s skin – but the critics were right, too. Any pro-Chinese tendency among Chinese voters could well have been disguised by the other dissimilarities of the neighbourhoods.

	 

	Since that original piece, booth-by-booth results of the election (a downloadable Excel file is available here) have been published which may help resolve this issue.

	 

	First, we need to find two neighbourhoods with similar left-right voting tendencies - but very dissimilar proportions of Chinese residents.

	I found these in the neighbourhoods of Dunbar-Southlands and neighbouring Arbutus Ridge. To the casual observer, these well-heeled right-leaning Westside districts might appear pretty much identical, and the results of the mayoral vote reveal a similar preference for a right-leaning candidate; in Dunbar-Southlands, the Non-Partisan Association’s Kirk LaPointe won 61 per cent of the vote, and in Arbutus Ridge, he scored 59 per cent. But census data compiled by the Vancouver Sun’s Chad Skelton reveals a very different ethnic makeup; the census tract which largely overlaps the Arbutus Ridge electoral boundaries is 44.5 per cent ethnically Chinese, compared to just 22.3 per cent in Dunbar-Southlands. 

	 


	Would their vastly different proportions of Chinese residents be discernible at the ballot box? Any ethnic preference conferred upon Chinese candidates in Arbutus Ridge should be obvious.

	 

	The overlapping of the census and electoral boundaries is not exact, so I selected the results of individual voting locations that fell safely within both. These were Trafalgar Elementary School (ballot location S2) and Prince of Wales Secondary (S3) in Arbutus Ridge; and Dunbar Community Centre (V1) and Southlands Elementary (V4) in Dunbar-Southlands.

	 

	At the Dunbar-Southlands locations, mayoral candidate Wong won 5.03 per cent of the vote, a combined 144 votes out of 2,862. In twice-as-Chinese Arbutus Ridge, she scored 5.42 per cent (84 votes out of 1,549). 

	 

	That’s not much of a difference, but the sheer number of votes cast for left-leaning Wong at these locations was very small, so let’s look at other ethnically Chinese candidates, across the political spectrum. 

	 

	Erin Shum was running for the Parks Board for the NPA. At our two Dunbar-Southlands booths, Shum won a total of 1,426 votes out of 16,365 ballots casts for all candidates (voters chose a list of seven candidates). That’s a healthy rate of 8.71 per cent.

	 


	In twice-as-Chinese Arbutus Ridge, meanwhile, Shum won a total of 764 votes out of a total of 8,734 ballots for individual candidates cast at the two selected booths, or 8.75 per cent. If there is any advantage being offered via Shum’s appeal to fellow Chinese, it must be very small.

	 

	Raymond Louie, representing the rival Vision Vancouver, was first elected to council in 2002. In our two Dunbar-Southlands ballot boxes, where a total of 24,381 votes were cast for individual candidates (voters got to choose ten candidates), Louie received 723 votes, or 2.96 per cent of all ballots. In the two Arbutus Ridge booths, he received 381 votes out of a total of 12,729, or 2.99 per cent. Again, it’s a tiny difference.

	 

	In other words, I couldn’t find any evidence of a significant pro-Chinese preference. Any such preference, if it exists at all, is minuscule.

	One other issue raised as a result of my initial analysis in November was whether Chinese might tend NOT to vote for candidates of a particular non-Chinese ethnicity. “Unnamed pol told me South Asians will vote for Chinese but not vice versa,” said one reader, adding that this “may be BS”.

	 

	I confess to being worried when I looked at how Park Board candidate Jay Jagpal of the NPA fared in Arbutus Ridge versus Dunbar-Southlands. However, I am relieved to report that in his case, at least, the anti-South-Asian tendency among Chinese does indeed appear to be BS. In the Dunbar-Southlands booths he secured 7.45 per cent of all votes; in Arbutus-Ridge, with twice as many Chinese residents, his vote was even higher, at 7.75 per cent. Phew.

	 

	The Hongcouver blog is devoted to the hybrid culture of its namesake cities: Hong Kong and Vancouver. All story ideas and comments are welcome. Connect with me by email ian.young@scmp.com or on Twitter, @ianjamesyoung70


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Hongcouver

No, really: Chinese voters in Vancouver don’t care if their candidates are Chinese too

Meena Wong’s candidacy offered an interesting test of whether ethnicity would play a role in voting intentions. Photo: Ian Young

Erin Shum. Photo: Handout

Raymond Louie. Photo: Handout

Jay Jagpal. Photo: Handout

Opinion

Blogs

They don’t seem concerned whether or not their politicians are South Asian, either


Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


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The Hongcouver

No, really: Chinese voters in Vancouver don’t care if their candidates are Chinese too

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}They don’t seem concerned whether or not their politicians are South Asian, either

They don’t seem concerned whether or not their politicians are South Asian, either