OpinionCan Asean unite over South China Sea?

There is a simple, compelling logic to the call from the Malaysian foreign minister at the weekend for Asean claimants to the South China Sea to settle their own claims before raising them with China.

As the region is fast learning, however, there is little that is simple or logical when it comes to the South China Sea - the strategic and oil-rich waterway that is now the scene of intensifying rivalries that many analysts fear are lurching towards confrontation.

On the surface, it raises more questions than answers. Among the biggest is the likely reaction of Beijing. If China has stuck fast to its long-held demand that rival territorial claims in the South China Sea must be settled through one-on-one negotiations with Beijing, even as it continues broader discussions with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, it is hardly likely to welcome any fresh sign that the grouping is ganging up against it.

As recently as three years ago, China had effectively silenced Asean on the South China Sea. Since members, backed by resurgent US interests, raised formal concerns about China's assertiveness in 2010, Beijing has worked discreetly but forcefully to undermine any fresh Asean unity on the issue.

The fruit of that effort, of course, was displayed in Phnom Penh last month when the annual meeting of Asean foreign ministers ended without even a routine communiqué amid rancour over South China Sea references and Chinese back-room manoeuvring.

Potential unity, then, among the four members with rival claims - Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam - could prove another target.