Asian order put to the test
Andrew Leung says the re-emergence of China as a world power is changing regional dynamics that have long featured a strong US presence; now, each must find a way to accommodate the other
For decades, the South China Sea has enjoyed relative calm, despite occasional territorial disputes. This has so far depended on a predominant US military umbrella under which regional states thrive in a China-centric global production-and-supply chain. This stability has now been disturbed on several fronts.
First, China views the South China Sea as assuming ever-increasing strategic weight. China has long-standing historical territorial claims over certain islets and atolls and a consequential large swathe of the South China Sea, demarcated by the controversial U-shaped "nine-dashed lines". Situated in these waters are sea lanes vital for economic survival, as well as huge potential energy reserves. China's rival territorial claimants have now become more assertive with their claims, resulting in recent high-sea stand-offs.
Over the years, China has been building harmonious relations around and beyond its periphery. It signed the Treaty of Amity and Co-operation of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2003. With the launch of the Asean-China Free Trade Area, the "Asean way", based on consensus and equality, has been gaining traction. But this mutually beneficial harmony is now showing signs of strain.
Second, there is growing US-China military rivalry. China is starting to build a blue-water navy with the commissioning of a first aircraft carrier. US strategists are also becoming alarmed by China's advances in mobile "aircraft-carrier killer" missiles and in cyber-warfare and space technologies, among others.
To counter China, the US military is reported to be planning a major expansion of radar missile defences in Asia. Concurrently, the Communist Party-run Global Times reported that China was developing a long-range, nuclear-capable, multiple-warhead ballistic missile that could potentially overcome US anti-missile defences.
Third, there is a looming split in the US-China symbiotic economic relationship. America is now feeling the pain of outsourcing jobs to China. It is alarmed by excessive debt-driven consumption financed by China's largesse in American treasuries. On its part, China is wary of over-reliance on exports and the folly of tying up too much savings in a "US dollar trap". Moreover, a prevailing "China threat" has resulted in unease and mistrust, if not paranoia.
These regional fault lines therefore call for a rethink for a more sustainable Asian order.