Will Xi's ascension herald political reform?
Patrick Mendis says China's incoming leader will probably stay true to his cultural and philosophical heritage, and any reform of the political structure is likely to be gradual
History is destiny for the Chinese people, as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping each proved the veracity of Confucius' mantra: "It takes but one word, it takes but one man to settle the fate of an empire." Beijing's leadership transition occurring shortly after the US presidential election may possibly be another historic moment for China to begin the world anew - this time, for a "Pacific" century.
Will the incoming Chinese president Xi Jinping take the "one word" of Deng's "reform" and expand the meaning to include political restructuring? Through Deng's strategies, over half of the Chinese people have been lifted out of poverty while other countries - including the United States - have benefited economically from China's peaceful rise.
The one-trillion-dollar question from Washington is: Will Xi be the next "one man to settle the fate" of the world's most populous country and be Deng's champion in the political realm?
Translating China's economic power into political reform involves a high-stakes gamesmanship. Regardless, the slated leadership of the Politburo Standing Committee will inevitably wrestle with the growing feelings of injustice among restless middle-class Chinese, especially the educated youth looking for financial and social mobility.
Alongside greater wealth and more education, a large number of Chinese have increasingly tasted freedom. The freedom to express grievances - especially by farmers and factory workers - is a healthy democratic sign. The Chinese people expect more justice. In one recent example, a Guangdong court awarded compensation of 825,000 yuan (HK$1 million) for loss of "freedom and emotional distress" to 39-year old Huang Liyi, who served 11 years in jail after being wrongfully convicted for fraud. Indeed, China is slowly changing.
Deng's legacy, with his slogan of "to get rich is glorious", has proven to be costly. It is not only associated with corruption, environmental degradation and public health concerns, but also with the unintended social and political consequences of his economic reform policy. With their material needs fulfilled, Chinese people will naturally turn to non-material aspirations like freedom and democracy. Thomas Jefferson explained it this way: "Human nature is the same on every side of the Atlantic [and the Pacific] and will be alike influenced by the same causes."