China the subtle superpower
Tom Velk and Olivia Gong say while China shows all the usual traits of a conventional great power, the West needs to accept that the way it wields its influence is also very different
If Xi Jinping wants to tackle China's "severe challenges", he needs to understand the nature of the new power China has accumulated over the past decade. So the question remains: Is China a superpower today?
A pundit recently said "no" because, among other factors, China has only one aircraft carrier in comparison to America's 11. The analysis is mistaken; it's not about the ship count, but the reality of power.
China possesses a power that is deeply rooted in tradition, ideas and cultural habits that are far more ancient than the policies connected with Western communism. What defines a superpower? It is a matter of spirit, confidence, influence, patience, determination and sophistication − all in pursuit of well-understood, long-term national interests.
A superpower stands on its own, without the need of allies (although those may be helpful at times). It influences other states, sometimes at a cost to these states' national interests. It possesses enormous reserves of strength, sufficient enough to carry it through the most severe trials of real combat or devastating diplomatic reversals. It steers events to serve its interests, by subtle, sometimes invisible means, even in distant places. It prevents others from harming its national interests, or altering its existing spheres of influence. Its culture is dominant, and it modifies other cultures. Finally, it constrains the behaviour of enemies. If talking fails, diplomacy is backed up by the threat to use overwhelming force.
China currently meets all of these traditional characteristics of a superpower. But its mix and balance is special: China is and will continue to be a very different superpower from the US.
Traditional Chinese wisdom says: "Four taels yield a thousand catties." A subtle player earns a big pay-off for a small effort. A clever wrestler redirects the opponent's clumsy strength to win the bout. This wisdom is evident in China's foreign policies. While America's profligate expenditure of blood and treasure in the Middle East may end in profitless withdrawal, China, by subtle and nuanced deals with Iran and Syria, has gained access to needed oil supplies. While the US contemplates new military intervention, Syria's sales to China provide financial lifeblood, giving China significant leverage.
By modulating the de facto aid it supplies to Syria and Iran, China can counteract or reinforce American aims in the Middle East, not by expenditure, but with less aggressive trading profits.