South Korea's new president is sure to feel stiff north winds
Donald Kirk sees the presidency of Park Geun-hye in South Korea as one of measured toughness towards the North, which will surely be tested
The election of Park Geun-hye as president of South Korea completes the transition of power in northeast Asia that began with the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il slightly more than one year ago. Now, besides having a new leader of North Korea in the form of his son, Kim Jong-un, we have the rise of new leadership in China and a conservative about to take over in Japan.
In a worst-case scenario, these leaders could deepen a regional confrontation that's reaching crisis proportions. Park, after defeating a liberal foe whose dream was to return to the discredited "sunshine policy" of reconciliation with North Korea, signalled hopes for renewing dialogue conditioned on "strong national security".
Thus she's throwing down the gauntlet before Kim Jong-un and those around him who may be pulling the strings. They will want to test the resolve of the woman whose father, Park Chung-hee, ruled the South for 18 years with an iron fist before his assassination in 1979.
Park is not likely to revive the stern policies of her father, for whose legacy of harshness she apologised profusely during her campaign. Nor will she perpetuate the strictly hardline policy of outgoing president Lee Myung-bak, who cut off all aid to North Korea at the outset of his administration in 2008.
Park will not, however, consider resumption of the massive doses of food and fertiliser shipped annually to the North during the decade of the sunshine policy, initiated by Kim Dae-jung. The most the North can expect from her is "humanitarian aid" to help feed its perpetually famished people, the amount keyed to the North's response.
The ideal response would be for the North to stop the long-range missile tests and give up its nuclear programme as solemnly agreed in 2007 after lengthy six-party talks chaired by China and including the United States, Japan and Russia plus the two Koreas. Nobody dreams, however, that North Korea is going to be so co-operative, not after its latest missile test, which it said put a small satellite into orbit.