Soft-power strategy to rebalance Asia
Andrew Leung says a peaceful world order cannot be built on the assumption of a zero-sum game of rivalry; instead, nations should help rising China take its place as a key member
After months of tension over the South China Sea, Communist Party general secretary Xi Jinping's meeting with Natsuo Yamaguchi, Japan's envoy and leader of the junior party in the ruling coalition, sends an unmistaken signal that while neither side is persuaded by the other's territorial claim, both realise that escalating confrontations can only make matters worse.
Concurrently, a whiff of fresh air on America's "Asia pivot" strategy was evident during Senator John Kerry's confirmation hearing for his nomination to be secretary of state. At the hearing, he said he was unconvinced of the need for a US "military ramp-up" in Asia and called for fresh thinking in relations with China. In particular, he is conscious of growing Chinese suspicions of an American "containment policy". "You know, the Chinese look at that and say, 'What's the United States doing? They trying to circle us? What's going on?" he was quoted as saying.
These are welcome signs. However, they are unlikely to change the resurgence of Japan's right-wing politics, or the US vigilance over China's intentions as the Asian giant regains its global influence.
According to a recent survey of US public opinion on their country's foreign policy, conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, most Americans continue to see US leadership as desirable but want a more co-operative stance. Towards China, while they are equally divided between thinking of it mostly as a partner (48 per cent) and mostly a rival (47 per cent), the percentage saying that China is mostly a partner has grown.
China's growing economic clout and muscularity in the South China Sea are, however, a clear concern. Most people (54 per cent) support the shift of military and diplomatic resources towards Asia.
We are likely to see less talk of an "Asian pivot" and more of "rebalancing". However, America's redoubled military and diplomatic ties with China's neighbours are empowering some countries to be more assertive, making America's efforts to rebalance the region more complicated.
A recent Asia Times article, by columnist Francesco Sisci, argues that a "G2" détente between the US and China may be a better approach to regional stability, even though China's response to such an overture has been lukewarm. Professor Hugh White of the Australian National University floats the idea of a "concert of Asia" to avoid a possible "deadly strategic rivalry". America is to partner and share regional power with China, along with India and Japan.