Jake's View | An age-old problem and the sums that just don't add up
If two different forecasts made by our statisticians over the space of just two years can barely get within half a million people of each other for the year 2039 and entirely ignore an external forecast of an actual population decline, how can John Whiskers know that we will have exactly 2.56 million elderly in 2041?
According to the latest projection, the number of elderly people will increase significantly to 2.56 million by 2041, representing 30 per cent of our population.
Let's start by setting the precision of this forecast into perspective. The chart shows you three official forecasts for Hong Kong's long-term population growth. The middle one is the one referred to in the budget.
So if two different forecasts made by our statisticians over the space of just two years can barely get within half a million people of each other for the year 2039 and entirely ignore an external forecast of an actual population decline, how can John Whiskers know that we will have exactly 2.56 million elderly in 2041?
But let's say that his forecast is right. He then poses a dilemma for us to consider. The forecast implies that in 2041 there will be a ratio of only 1.8 working people to every elderly (and presumably retired) person. How can we possibly support them all? Just think of the medical bills alone.