China's one-child policy must be changed before it's too late

Thanks to longer life expectancy and the one-child policy, for well over a decade China's fertility rate has remained below replacement levels. According to the US National Institute on Ageing, the number of elderly aged 65 and above in China will grow from 110 million in 2011 to 330 million by 2050. The ratio of retirees to income earners will increase and, by the middle of this century, there could be 100 million Chinese over the age of 80.

An ageing demography usually accompanies economic growth, because a rising middle class tends to value family quality more than size. Demographics in most Asian emerging markets are showing a long-term greying profile, varying only in degree. The working-age populations of South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand are all predicted to contract within the next 10 years.

On the mainland, the so-called 4-2-1 phenomenon is common, whereby two sets of grandparents and two parents dote on an only child. When the child grows up, he or she, and spouse, will be culturally obliged to share the support for up to a dozen parents and grandparents.

Admittedly, China's working-age population is not yet falling in absolute terms. China's dependency ratio (the number of non-workers as a percentage of those who work) is still relatively low. This "demographic dividend" has been driving China's breakneck economic growth.

Very soon, however, this dividend will turn into a deficit. According to Zhongwei Zhao and Fei Guo, in Transition and Challenge: China's Population at the Beginning of the 21st Century, China's working-age population (those aged 15-64) is expected to rise to "slightly more than one billion in 2015. Then it will gradually decline to 966 million in 2030 and 845 million in 2050."

The negative stereotype of the only child has long been debunked by many scholars. Contrary to popular belief, there is no evidence to suggest that he or she is prone to becoming a domineering social misfit. On the contrary, he or she is more likely to achieve academic and career excellence because of better parental care and higher expectations.