Goal of yuan convertibility within reach
Qu Hongbin expects the renminbi to be fully convertible in five years, not only because of the market's impressive growth so far but also, more importantly, because it is Beijing's goal
China is no longer just the world's biggest factory - it is the biggest factor in many parts of the global economy. "Made in China" is now being matched by "Bought by China" as the country's tourists, consumers and companies purchase more products, services, commodities and properties in other parts of the world.
Even as Western nations have succumbed to debt-induced slumber, China's continued expansion has dramatically improved economic prospects elsewhere in the world: some of its closest neighbours and many major commodity producers have been caught in the country's powerful slipstream. This gravitational pull is not confined to purely economic developments. Thanks to the rise of the renminbi, the world financial system is also beginning to be radically reshaped.
The renminbi has played a relatively limited role in international trade and capital markets but this is changing - fast. The pace of internationalisation of the "redback", as the renminbi is known by some, hasn't just taken off, it has soared. The proportion of Chinese exports and imports settled in renminbi has increased about six-fold in three years, to nearly 12 per cent; the pool of offshore renminbi, non-existent three years ago, now tops around 900 billion yuan (HK$1.1 trillion).
By 2015, the currency could account for a third of China's international trade and take its place among the world's top three trade currencies. But the story is much bigger than trade.
The rise of the redback is rapidly becoming an important story for those who manage renminbi foreign exchange risk or use the currency to invest.
The growth can be seen everywhere - from the foreign exchange and bond markets and new offshore centres like Singapore, Taiwan and London, to stock market investment schemes and foreign direct investment and Chinese direct investment overseas. The offshore renminbi market, introduced in 2010, has seen liquidity surge 2½ times between 2010 and 2012, and it is still rising strongly.
This, plus the introduction of a broad range of renminbi products, has significant implications for hedging, financing and investment. For example, international companies such as BP, Tesco and Volkswagen now have access to the currency through Hong Kong's booming dim sum bond market. These flows are going in both directions - in and out of China - through an increasing number of financial conduits being opened by Beijing.