Immigration surge is no solution to population ageing
Tan Jee Say says relying on immigrant numbers to reverse population ageing, as Singapore proposes, is a poor solution. Hong Kong has got it right by seeking growth elsewhere
The inter-relationships of population, economic growth and quality of life have aroused intense debate as cities compete with each other to become mega cities. But this rush is taking place at a time when societies are not ready for it. I know this personally, as I spoke only a month ago at a public protest rally in my own country against a proposed population increase of 30 per cent, most of whom would be immigrants.
It was Singapore's largest protest gathering, of about 4,000 to 5,000, very small by Hong Kong standards but huge by the standards of Singapore's post-independence history. The event was particularly newsworthy, given Singaporeans' well-known reputation as a docile people. But Singaporeans are no longer docile.
There is only so much you can do to people. When you not only squeeze their pockets and violate their physical space, but also deprive them of their sense of identity, you must expect a strong response. If such a policy were to be pushed through anywhere else, the reaction from the people would be monumental. Hong Kong's streets would easily see a turnout of half a million. In mainland China, it might even spark another cultural revolution.
But there is really no need for people in mainland China and Hong Kong to take to the streets. Your planners have a more sensible approach to solving the twin problems of an ageing population and a low fertility rate - by tackling the root causes. Instead of increasing the population substantially with young immigrants, Hong Kong has taken the opposite attitude of restraint.
It is fixing its basic infrastructure, which has come under severe strain with an influx of 34 million mainland tourists a year. Simultaneously, it is pushing its economic frontier outwards by integrating more deeply with southern China so as to reduce the pressure on the city's infrastructure.
As for the problem of ageing, I am sure mainland women will continue to deliver babies in Hong Kong and if the babies make Hong Kong their permanent home when they grow up, particularly those with Hong Kong residents as fathers, they will keep the population young.
Mainland China goes further than Hong Kong's restraint, with its one-child policy. But it has become too successful and, if it continues, will worsen the problem of population ageing. Why are the Chinese authorities not abolishing it? I believe that, like Hong Kong, mainland China wants to improve its infrastructure first.