The reason for North Korea's war talk

If Kim Jong-un is truly contemplating a serious military option, he should realise that such a move would signal the end of North Korea as we know it. Not only because South Korea and the US would respond immediately to any attack but because the North is in no condition to launch a war.

Kim and his generals may believe that with nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, special forces, and over 1,000 missiles, North Korea enjoys a strategic edge. True, nuclear weapons are an extremely serious threat. But the nation's overriding war-fighting capabilities have been degraded over the years due to endemic food and fuel shortages, the dwindling of more modern weapons systems from Russia and China, and an extremely corrupt and politicised general staff. Moreover, if Kim believes South Korea's new president, Park Geun-hye, is going to buckle under his threats, he should think again.

Despite sequestration and looming budget cuts in the US, the US-South Korea alliance has never been stronger and Kim should understand that President Barack Obama, who has shown his willingness to take the war on terrorism to a new level, is no pushover.

Finally, there is China, in the persona of President Xi Jinping . The worst scenario for Xi and the newly configured Central Military Commission is to allow Kim to undertake a ruinous military venture. Xi's close ties with the People's Liberation Army and deep knowledge of military policy mean he is likely to maintain a tighter grip on surveillance of the North Korean army. If Kim unleashes another attack like the 2010 sinking of the Cheonan and bombing of Yeonpyeong Island, Xi is highly unlikely to sit on the fence. He will perceive North Korea to be a strategic liability.

North Korea's intrinsic value as a buffer against South Korea and the US may have made sense when China was weak and fractured. Today, China's longer-term prosperity and stability hardly depend on bolstering a poor, isolated and dangerous country. Consider the fact that Seoul's annual trade with Beijing is expected to top the US$300 billion mark by 2015 whereas Pyongyang continues to be dependent on Chinese aid.

Kim rightly believes that, given his rise to power without any formal military training and matching experience, he has to demonstrate his credentials to the very elite that keep him in power: the Korean People's Army. His father Kim Jong-il and his grandfather Kim Il-sung were all glued at their hips to the army. The main difference is that the army's respect and fear of the Kim dynasty has ebbed since Kim Il-sung's days.